How might markets exhibit both short-term reversals and longer-term momentum? Motivated by this question, we develop a dynamic model which includes noise traders and investors who underreact to signals that they do not themselves produce. Our setting implies the following: Return predictability...

By using a nonlinear VAR model, we investigate whether the response of the US stock and housing markets to uncertainty shocks depends on financial conditions. Our model allows us to change the response of the US financial markets to volatility shocks in periods of normal and financial distress....