We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....

Appendix available here: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=3381004" https://ssrn.com/abstract=3381004.We examine the design and effectiveness of the 4pm Fix, the most important benchmark in FX markets, using a unique dataset of trader identified orderbook data from an inter- dealer venue. We propose...

"The average forward discount of the dollar against developed market currencies is the best predictor of average foreign currency excess returns earned by U.S. investors on a long position in a large basket of foreign currencies and a short position in the dollar. The predicted excess returns...