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US, Japan and the euro area
McAdam, Peter - 2003
There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635889
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On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy
Beyer, Andreas; Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2003
A number of authors have attemted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must be impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635896
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Forecasting real GDP
Brand, Claus; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Seitz, Franz - 2003
This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922
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The US Fiscal Crisis: The Debt Sustainability Delusion and the True Costs of Fiscal Austerity
Mendoza, Enrique G. - In: CESifo Forum 14 (2013) 2, pp. 25-31
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010736737
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“Can You Fall Off a Cliff and Hit a Ceiling?”: On Shooting Yourself in Your Own Analogy
Forstater, Mathew - In: CESifo Forum 14 (2013) 2, pp. 32-37
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010736739
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Fiscal Policy in the United States: Still in Need of a Strategy
Stockton, David J. - In: CESifo Forum 14 (2013) 2, pp. 09-16
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010736740
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USA nach der Wahl: Hat sich das Risiko des »Fiscal Cliff« erhöht? Welche Folgen sind zu befürchten?
Braml, Josef; Besch, Rudolf; Weidensteiner, Bernd - In: Ifo Schnelldienst 65 (2012) 24, pp. 03-14
Die USA haben gewählt und den amtierenden Präsidenten Barack Obama in seinem Amt bestätigt. Nach Ansicht von Josef … amerikanischen Wirtschaftsmodells. Wenn nicht bis Jahresende eine überparteiliche Lösung im Kongress gefunden wird, droht den USA …. Für Bernd Weidensteiner, Commerzbank AG, ist ein plausibles Szenario, dass die USA zu Jahresbeginn zwar über die …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010627544
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The US Fiscal Cliff – When Economists Recklessly Endanger the Economy
Kotlikoff, Laurence - In: CESifo Forum 14 (2013) 2, pp. 03-08
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877552
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Jumping the Fiscal Cliff: The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy-Making under President Obama
Mildner, Stormy-Annika; Howald, Julia - In: CESifo Forum 14 (2013) 2, pp. 17-24
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877560
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Classification and Clustering in Business Cycle Analysis
Heilemann, Ullrich (contributor); Weihs, Claus (contributor) - 2007
The analysis of cyclical macroeconomic phenomena is an important field of econometric research. In the recent past, research interests have de-emphasized quantitative forecasting exercises and have addressed the qualitative diagnosis of the relative stance of the economy regarding "upswing",...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011598605