In a large class of hazard models with proportional unobserved heterogeneity, the distribution of the heterogeneity among survivors converges to a gamma distribution. This convergence is often rapid. We derive this result as a general result for exponential mixtures and explore its implications...

Public programs often use statistical profiling to assess the risk that applicants will become long-term dependent on the program. The literature uses linear probability models and (Cox) proportional hazard models to predict duration outcomes. These either focus on one threshold duration or...

In nonlinear panel models with fixed effects and fixed-T, the incidental parameter problem poses identification difficulties for structural parameters and partial effects. Existing solutions are model-specific, likelihood-based, impose time homogeneity, or restrict the distribution of unobserved...

This paper shows how to increase the power of Hausman's (1978) specification test as well as the difference test in a large class of models. The idea is to impose the restrictions of the null and the alternative hypotheses when estimating the covariance matrix. If the null hypothesis is true...

In this paper we develop procedures for performing inference in regression models about how potential policy interventions affect the entire marginal distribution of an outcome of interest. These policy interventions consist of either changes in the distribution of covariates related to the...

We examine a new general class of hazard rate models for survival data, containing a parametric and a nonparametric component. Both can be a mix of a time effect and (possibly time-dependent) marker or covariate effects. A number of well-known models are special cases. In a counting process...

We consider the estimation of nonlinear models with mismeasured explanatory variables, when information on the marginal distribution of the true values of these variables is available. We derive a semi-parametric MLE that is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. In a...

Classical business cycles, following Burns and Mitchell (1946), can be defined as the sequential pattern of expansions and contractions in aggregate economic activity. Recently, Harding and Pagan (2002, 2006) have provided an econometric toolkit for the analysis of these cycles, and this has...

The U.S. labor market has been experiencing unprecedented high average unemployment duration. The shift in the unemployment duration distribution can be traced back to the early nineties. In this study, censored quantile regression methods are employed to analyze the changes in the US...

This extensive Monte Carlo study re-examines properties of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity and unknown duration dependence. Alternative specifications and computation strategies are compared. We find: i) The inherent...