Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich in einem moderaten Aufschwung. Zu diesem Ergebnis kommt die Mitte April veröffentlichte Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte demnach in diesem Jahr um 1,6% und im kommenden Jahr um 1,5% zulegen. Getragen...

The German economy is in the midst of a robust economic cycle: the number of employed persons has reached historic highs and is still increasing powerfully; private household income is on the rise; and the public coffers are overflowing. Inflation is rising only gradually, partly because...

Global economic output is expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year, and with a slightly stronger dynamic in the coming year; both predictions match the figures proposed in DIW Berlin’s spring forecast, even though the year started off somewhat weaker than expected. But overall, economic...

This paper presents a revised version of the DIW Economic Barometer, the business cycle index of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). As in earlier versions, we put forward a factor model on a monthly frequency to filter the latent state of the aggregate economy. In the new...

The upswing of the German economy continues and since the beginning of 2017, even at a somewhat faster pace. Sharp gains in employment are still driving consumption. And companies are investing significantly more in machines and facilities. Many global risks that previously limited the...

The global economy is expected to grow by four percent annually over the next two years. This is a slight increase in the German Institute for Economic Research forecast in comparison to that of the fall. The upswing will gain momentum in both developed and emerging economies. Private...

The German economy will grow by 2.4 percent this year, especially due to strong foreign demand. Brisk investment activity continues in this economic climate; stimulus from foreign trade, however, is weakening somewhat. Despite strong consumer demand in the coming quarters, employment and economic...

The global economy is likely to grow by over four percent this year and somewhat less next year. DIW Berlin has slightly raised its forecast for both years. Developed economies as well as emerging markets are experiencing an upturn; however, growth rates are likely to be slightly lower in the...

Compared to last year, the German economy is weakening noticeably. Orders from abroad are decreasing and domestic companies are holding back on investments. However, capacity utilization remains high—also because the government will boost the incomes of private households next year. However,...

The political conditions for growth are currently dominated by increased uncertainty; this is particularly weighing on investment activity and slowing down the global economy. DIW Berlin is lowering its forecast slightly for this year and the next to 4.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively....