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The active role of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries
Hall, Robert Ernest; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014423725
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Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US
Albonico, Alice; Tirelli, Patrizio; Paccagnini, Alessia - 2016
This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the … subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate … increase in expenditure-to- GDP ratios was apparently determined by the adverse non-policy shocks that caused the recession. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434680
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In search of the Euro area fiscal stance
Albonico, Alice; Tirelli, Patrizio; Paccagnini, Alessia - 2016
This paper investigates the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate EMU business cycle. Previous studies, based on the assumption of non-separability between public and private consumption, obtain a large public consumption multiplier, a small fraction of non-Ricardian households and,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011529025
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Good news about news shocks
Langer, Viktoria C. E. - 2015 - Version: June 2015
Extending and modifying the canonical New Keynesian (NK) model, this study provides a novel approach to examine the impact of anticipated shocks called "news shocks" on business cycles. The analysis shows that news shocks are less stressful for an economy than commonly assumed. The main results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373568
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Global shocks alert and monetary policy responses
Shobande, Olatunji Abdul; Shodipe, Oladimeji Tomiwa; … - 2019
The study examines the role of global predictors on national monetary policy formation for Kenya and Ghana within the New Keynesian DSGE framework. We developed and automatically calibrated our DSGE model using the Bayesian estimator, which made our model robust to rigorous stochastic number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012107801
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A small New Keynesian model to analyze business cycle dynamics in Poland and Romania
Nalban, Valeriu - In: Contemporary economics 9 (2015) 3, pp. 319-336
In this paper, we derive a small textbook New Keynesian DSGE model to evaluate Polish and Romanian business cycles during the 2003 - 2014 period. Given the similarities between the two economies, we use an identical calibration procedure for certain coefficients and marginal prior distributions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392289
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Endogenous growth and the Taylor principle
Micheli, Martin - 2017
This paper analyzes conditions for determinacy in a new Keynesian model with endogenous growth. Endogenous growth shrinks the determinacy region considerably. Complying with the Taylor principle is not sufficient for determinacy, which decreases in the spillovers from actual on potential output....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011764637
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Towards technology-news-driven business cycles
Di Casola, Paola; Sichlimiris, Spyridon - 2018
We identify an inflationary technology news shock as the leading source of business cycle variations for the postwar U.S. economy. This shock acts like a demand shock: it induces strong positive comovement in real quantities - GDP, consumption, investment - and weak positive comovement between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011930326
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Endogenous Growth, Monetary Shocks and Nominal Rigidities
Annicchiarico, Barbara; Pelloni, Alessandra; Rossi, Lorenza - 2010
We introduce endogenous growth in an otherwise standard NK model with staggered prices and wages. Some results follow: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii) the relation between nominal volatility and growth depends on the persistence of the nominal shocks and on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343890
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Unemployment rate benchmarks
Crump, Richard K.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; … - 2020
This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates to the pursuit of both price stability and maximum employment. In particular, we propose two broad categories of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389411