The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a...

We propose a country classification of economic growth currency crisis consequences based on the entropic analysis of the real exchange rate. We show that this ranking is highly correlated with the annual minimum rate of growth, a proxy used to quantify real currency crisis effects.

In this paper we study the hypothesis of “divergent expectations” with a signaling game. Such hypothesis points out that, in emerging economies, local investors tend to be front-runners in a currency crisis. Our analysis shows that changes in the informational structure available to the...

Most countries which have experienced exchange rate crises over the last two decades have been under soft pegs or crawls. These exchange rate arrangements have normally succumbed in the face of massive capital inflow reversals --especially in developing countries-- thus provoking a search for...

We study the relationships between the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Tunisian dinar and its determinants/fundamentals, i.e. the ratio of trade balance/GDP, the ratio of public consumption/GDP, the openness rate and the terms of trade. We find that in the most of cases, the variables...

In this book several econometrics techniques are used to perform quantitative research of the exchange rate in transition. This is an empirical work based on related economic theory. While the stress is put on the exchange rate of the Czech koruna, the subject is analyzed from a broader...

This paper deals with statistics�and econometrics�properties of fractionally integra- ted GARCH (FIGARCH). We compare these characteristics with those of traditional models. We insist on the GARCH exponential/IGARCH in�nite decrease of volatility impact. Then, we apply it on three Tunisian...

Conventional threshold models contain only one threshold variable. This paper provides the theoretical foundation for threshold models with multiple threshold variables. The new model is very different from a model with a single threshold variable as several novel problems arisefrom having an...

Typical data sets employed by economists and financial analysts do not exceed a few hundred or thousand observations per series. However, in the last decade data sets containing tick-by-tick observations have become available. The studies of these data have turned up new and interesting facts...

The paper asks two questions. One, what is the size of the effect of the increase in real oil price on competitiveness of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries –the real exchange rate is a measure of competitiveness – and two, given recent concerns about the sliding greenback and the...