Despite major recent advance in the literature on financial crises, the key role of central banks in the dynamics of financial crises are still not well understood. Our aim is to contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of financial crises by explicitly modeling the strategic options...

Restrictions on international capital transactions and other payments are usually designed to limit volatile short-term capital flows ( hot money ) and stabilize the exchange rate. Their imposition, however, may have the opposite effect by inadvertently signaling the continuation of...

This paper analyzes the implications of currency crises in a model with unique equilibrium. Starting from a typical multiple equilibria model with self-fulfilling expectations we introduce noisy information, following Morris/Shin (1999). Under certain conditions for the noise parameter, all...

This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...

Essentially, the impact of the currency union on member countries depends on whether the common currency area is optimal in the sense that the effect of the asymmetric shocks is small, Mundell (1961). Typically, researchers use VAR of different types to analyze the data. For robustness, we use...

Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of...

In this work, assuming as a model the Multifractional Processes with Random Exponent (MPRE), we propose a simulation algorithm able to replicate financial time series, specifically pertaining to the FX market. We show how, properly choosing the functional parameter of the MPRE, the simulated...

We propose a tractable model for the exchange rate in a target zone with realignment. The target zone exchange rate dynamics is assumed to obey a bounded regular diffusion with two-sided unattainable barriers. The realignment is modeled as a continuous-time two-state Markov chain. Under the...

This paper considers a paradigm financial markets trades booking and valuation, data subscription and portfolio revaluation system. Traded instruments covered include: spot and forward exchange rates (FX); credit default swaps (CDS); total return swaps (TRS); commodity and bond futures; traded...

This chapter reviews the rapid advances in foreign exchange volatility modeling made in the last three decades. Academic researchers have sought to fit the three major characteristics of foreign exchange volatility: intraday periodicity, autocorrelation and discontinuities in prices. Early...