This study develops an easy forecasting model using prefectural data in Japan. The Markov chain known as a stochastic model corresponds to the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model of the first order. If the transition probability matrix can be appropriately estimated, the forecasting model using...

Piston plays a vital role in almost all types of vehicles. The present study discusses the behavioral study of a piston manufacturing plant. Manufacturing plants are complex repairable systems and therefore, it is difficult to evaluate the performance of a piston manufacturing plant using...

Purpose: The main purpose of this article is to explore the trade-off between ordering policies and disruption risks in a dual-sourcing network under specific (or not) service level constraints, assuming that both supply channels are susceptible to disruption risks. Design/methodology/approach:...

The primus inter pares of the UN Millennium Development Goals is to reduce poverty. The only internationally accepted method of estimating poverty requires a measurement of total consumption based on a time and resource demanding household budget or integrated survey over 12 months. Rather than...

Laotian rice producers in upland areas experience highly fluctuating yields and production and producers in wet season rice areas in the southern region face high price risk. This paper examines the exposure to risk of producers in both regions facing changes in water supplies. A supply and...

Efficiency and sustainability often clash if limited-tenure use rights for renewable natural resources are rented to private resource managers. We introduce a mechanism reconciling these two issues for a stochastically developing natural resource. The mechanism selects the most patient and,...

Inventory management and pricing decisions based on quantitative models both in industrial practice and academic works often rely on minimizing expected cost or maximizing expected revenues or profits, which refers to the concept of risk-neutrality of the decision maker. Although many useful...

Este documento presenta una metodología para analizar la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública, que incorpora elementos que permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre del entorno macrofinanciero. El objetivo es identificar los riesgos, no solo bajo supuestos concretos, sino también teniendo en cuenta...

This paper presents a methodology for analysing public debt sustainability that incorporates factors that enable uncertainty in the macro-financial environment to be quantified. The aim is to identify risks, not only under specific assumptions, but also considering a complete characterisation of...