Initial estimates for the first quarter of 2009 indicate that the Mexican economy declined by 8.2 percent from the same period in 2008. The leading economic indicator index of INEGI, the national statistics institute, points to additional economic contraction in the coming months. The Consensus...

As economic conditions in the United States have faltered, the impact on the Mexican economy has been negative. The short-term consensus projections for Mexico reflect this and suggest that the downturn is not likely to loosen its grip on the Mexican economy until the second half of 2009 or even...

As the third quarter of 2009 comes to a close, the Mexican economy remains severely battered. The latest INEGI data indicate that the second quarter of 2009 brought with it an annual GDP decrease, in real terms, of nearly 10.3 percent. The current consensus outlook calls for the light at the end...

For 2009 as a whole, this quarter’s consensus outlook anticipates a steep decline of 6.9 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP). This outlook for inflation-adjusted GDP is not surprising given the panelists expectations for private consumption, as consumers are expected to reduce...

This paper develops an instrumental variable (IV) estimator for consistent estimation of dynamic panel data models with error cross-sectional dependence when both N and T, the cross-section and time series dimensions respectively, are large. Our approach asymptotically projects out the common...

This paper considers panel data regression models with weakly exogenous or endogenous regressors and residuals generated by a multi-factor error structure. In this case, the standard dynamic panel estimators fail to provide consistent estimates of the parameters. We propose a new estimation...

This paper analyzes a growing group of fixed T dynamic panel data estimators with a multi-factor error structure. We use a unified notational approach to describe these estimators and discuss their properties in terms of deviations from an underlying set of basic assumptions. Furthermore, we...

Despite an abundance of empirical evidence on crime spanning over forty years, there exists no consensus on the impact of the criminal justice system on crime activity. We argue that this may be due to the combined effect of simultaneity, omitted variable bias and aggregation bias that may...