In this paper I argue that political-economy considerations –and in particular the identity of the reformers- are central to understanding the Argentine crisis. During the 90´s the main political parties remained attached to populism, and no strong party emerged at the center of the political...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...