Literature shows that the regression of independent and (nearly) nonstationary time series could result in spurious outcomes. In this paper, we conjecture that under some situations, the regression of two independent and nearly non-stationary series does not have any spurious problem at all. To...

We establish 16 good practice principles for modelling defined contribution pension plans. These principles cover the following issues: model specification and calibration; modelling quantifiable uncertainty; modelling member choices; modelling member characteristics, such as occupation and...

Due to the non-normality of stock returns, nonparametric rank tests are gaining accceptance relative to parametric tests in financial economics event studies. In rank tests, financial assets' multiple day cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) are replaced by cumulated ranks. This paper proposes...

This paper demonstrates that it is possible to improve significantly on the estimated call prices obtained with the regression and simulation-based least-squares Monte Carlo method by using put-call symmetry. The results show that, for a large sample of options with characteristics of relevance...

This paper examines the behaviour of Bitcoin returns and those of several other cryptocurrencies in the pre and post period of the introduction of the Bitcoin futures market. We use the principal component-guided sparse regression (PC-LASSO) model to analyze several sample sizes for the pre and...

The recent evolution of prudential regulation establishes a new requirement for banks and supervisors to perform reverse stress test exercises in their risk assessment processes, aimed at detecting default or near-default scenarios. We propose a reverse stress test methodology based on a...

This paper proposes the sample path generation method for the stochastic volatility version of the CGMY process. We present the Monte-Carlo method for European and American option pricing with the sample path generation and calibrate model parameters to the American style S&P 100 index options...

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate misalignment on outward capital flight in Botswana over the period 1980-2015. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach to Granger causality. Botswana's currency...

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and five. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign...

Currently, global value chains (GVCs) are increasingly shaping the global economy, covering a growing share of international trade, GDP, and employment globally. Global trade is impacted by the emergence of GVCs in areas as diverse as commodities, electronics, and business service outsourcing,...