This investigation aims to explain and quantify the deviations of the Taylor Rule. A novel three-step econometric procedure designed to reflect the data-rich environment in which central banks operate is proposed using information for 229 macroeconomic series. This procedure can be applied to...

The paper models strategic monetary-fiscal interactions in the aftermath of the global financial crisis - in a single country as well as a monetary union. It depicts both the short- term (stabilization) perspective and the long-term (sustainability) perspective, and the link between them. This...

We investigate a new source of economic stickiness: namely, staggered loan interest rate contracts under monopolistic competition. The paper introduces this mechanism into a standard New Keynesian model. Simulations show that a response to a financial shock is greatly amplified by the staggered...

The sustained elevated gold price domestically, hovering persistently above the global market price, underscores the peculiar nature of the gold market in Vietnam and the resiliently strong demand for gold in the local market. In particular, the movements in the price of gold seem to lead a...

Using voting data from the Bank of England, we show that different individual assessments of the economy strongly influence votes after controlling for individual policy preferences. We estimate that internal members form more precise assessments than externals and are also more hawkish, though...

This paper studies how monetary policy should respond to news about an oil discovery, using a workhorse New Keynesian model. Good news about future production can create a recession today under exchange rate pegs and a simple Taylor rule, as seen in practice. This is explained by forward-looking...

We incorporate inferential expectations into the Barro-Gordon model (1983a) of time inconsistency and consider reputational equilibria. The range of sustainable equilibria shrinks as the private sector becomes more belief-conservative.

Two impediments to effective monetary policy operation include illiquidity in bond markets and the move towards the zero bound of interest rates. Either or both of these scenarios have been evident in many countries in the last decade, raising the suggestion that alternative means of enacting...

We evaluate the performance of an open economy DSGE-VAR model for New Zealand along both forecasting and policy dimensions. We show that forecasts froma DSGE-VAR and a "vanilla" DSGE model are competitive with, and in some dimensions superrior to, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official...

We construct a monetary model where government bonds also provide liquidity service. Liquid government bonds affect equilibrium allocations, inflation and create an endogenous interest-rate spread. How this new feature alters optimal fiscal-monetary policy in a stochastic sticky-price...