In this paper we study various methods for detecting the co integrating rank as the number of variables gets large. We show that the use of standard tools will always lead to misleading inferences in such settings due to excessive size distortions. Particularly the LR test tends to produce too...

We derive the parameter restrictions that a standard equity market model implies for a bivariate vector autoregression for stock prices and dividends, and we show how to test these restrictions using likelihood ratio tests.  The restrictions, which imply that stock returns are unpredictable,...

We compare testing strategies for Granger noncausality in vector autoregressions (VARs) that may or may not have unit roots and cointegration. Sequential testing methods are examined; these test for cointegration and use either a differenced VAR or a vector error correction model (VECM), in which...

We use vector autoregressive models to estimate the effect of monetary policy on investors’ risk aversion. The latter is proxied by a variety of option based implied volatility indices for Germany and the UK. There is clear evidence of a procyclical response between monetary policy and risk...

The paper investigates the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import and consumer prices in Nigeria between 1986Q1 and 2007Q4 on the basis of vector error correction methodology. Results reveal that exchange rate pass-through in Nigeria is low, slightly higher in the import than in the...

This article hypothesises that, due to factors such as thin trading and lack of publicly available data on transactions in the land market, urban land prices react more sluggishly to shocks in market fundamentals than housing prices do. Based on a vector error-correction model utilising...

This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, labour income and asset wealth in Poland. Within cointegrated VAR model dynamic responses of the variables in the system to shocks are studied. In addition, series are decomposed into permanent and transitory components on the...

In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models identifying restrictions for shocks and impulse responses are usually derived from economic theory or institutional constraints. Sometimes the restrictions are insufficient for identifying all shocks and impulse responses. In this paper it is...

Structural VARs have been extensively used in empirical macroeconomics during the last two decades, particularly in analyses of monetary policy. Existing Bayesian procedures for structural VARs are at best confined to a severly limited handling of cointegration restrictions. This paper extends...

In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models identifying restrictions for shocks and impulse responses are usually derived from economic theory or institutional constraints. Sometimes the restrictions are insufficient for identifying all shocks and impulse responses. In this paper it is...