Fiscal buffers have shrunk across the world. This paper argues that limited fiscal room in emerging market economies today is partly due to the commodity super cycle of 2000-15. The super cycle created the mirage that economic performance had structurally improved, mistaking a long,...

This paper documents stylized facts on rates of returns to education during economic crises. It shows from three middle-income countries - Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa - that the rate of return to university education (versus secondary education) has increased during economic crises....