models of GDP. We first estimate nine models of trend-cycle decomposition of euro area GDP, both univariate and multivariate …, some of them allowing for changes in the slope of trend GDP and/or its error variance using Markov-switching specifications …-time estimates to check the stability of the estimates to GDP revisions. We finally run a forecasting experiment to evaluate the …

policy response has been to focus on the ratio of private sector credit to GDP for an economy, observing, in particular …-state relationship between private sector credit and GDP in the case of Ireland, a country which, even by international standards …

This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That … is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the … indicators are used to bridge the gap of missing GDP data. The process of selecting the best performing equations is accomplished …

This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … monthly. The nowcasting literature has been focused on GDP, typically using monthly indicators in order to produce an accurate … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin …

inflation”. We start from a careful modeling of optimal price setting allowing for non-unitary factor substitution, non …-stickiness estimates than otherwise and suggests a more balanced weight of backward and forward-looking inflation expectations than … commonly found. Our results challenge existing views of inflation determinants and have important implications for modeling …