This paper focuses on the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for The Gambia. Understandings have been reached with the authorities on the SMP covering the period October 1, 2005 to March 31, 2006. Key objectives of the program include making progress toward fiscal sustainability, strengthening...

This Selected Issues paper for the Solomon Islands reviews budget trends in the past decade and assesses medium-term budget prospects. Aid flows and revenue from import tariffs and logging are projected to decline. Spending pressures are likely to pick up considerably, owing to the need to...

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on...

A dynamic dependent-economy model is developed to investigate the role of the real exchange rate in determining the effects of foreign aid. If capital is perfectly mobile between sectors, untied aid has no longrun impact on the real exchange rate. A decline in the traded sector occurs because...

Given recent developments in Iceland, this paper evaluates its real exchange rate disequilibrium. It discusses three approaches to estimating the equilibrium values and suggests that the adjustment needed to bring the real exchange rate in line with fundamentals is in the range of 15-25 percent,...