controls also appear to be less motivated by worries about financial market volatility or fickle capital flows per se, but … inflation and output volatility. Moreover, countries with a high level of capital controls, and those actively implementing …

of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically … current account in the past, accounting for up to 30% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By … the US trade balance. Our findings suggest that large exchange rate movements may not necessarily be the key element of an …