It is generally believed that for the power of unit root tests, only the time span and not the observation frequency matters. In this paper we show that the observation frequency does matter when the high-frequency data display fat tails and volatility clustering, as is typically the case for...

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...

A time series analysis of the Shanghai and New York Stock Exchange composite price indices is provided to compare the weekly rates of return and volatilities of these two markets and to study their co-movement in 1992-2002. The rate of return and volatility of the Shanghai market were higher....

This study investigates the impact of terrorism activities on tourism in Pakistan by using the annual time series data from the period of 1980 to 2010. Johansen and Jeuuselius and ARDL bound testing cointegration approach confirms the valid long run relationship between terrorism and tourism....

This paper undertakes a time series analysis of the Japanese divorce rate using annual data over the period 1964–2006. One of the key innovations of the paper is to use court decisions on divorce disputes to construct an index that seeks to measure how the probability of success in a divorce...

In this paper, we describe our investigation of the cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic output in Australia over a period of five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first...

By generalizing Hamiltons model of the US business cycle to a three-regime Markov-switching vector autoregressive model, this paper analyzes regime shifts in the stochastic process of economic growth in the US, Japan and Europe over the last four decades. Empirical evidence is established for...

Among the different criteria used for testing sustainability of public debt, the econometric approach determines whether a government is able to sustain its budget deficits without defaulting on its debt. In this contribution, by linking three different motives proposed respectively by Trehan...

This paper intends to harmonize two different approaches to the analysis of the business cycle and in doing so it retrieves the stylized facts of the business cycle in Europe. We start with the “classical” approach proposed in Burns and Mitchell (1946) of dating and analyzing the business...