Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggest that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture...

The optimum behavior of a competitive risk-averse international trader who supplies or demands commodities invoiced in foreign currency is examined when his profits are subject to several forms of risk: production, domestic cost, the exchange rate and the commodity price. The focus of our study...

This paper makes use of an integrated benchmark modeling framework that allows us to derive term structure equations for bond and forward prices. The benchmark or numeraire is chosen to be the growth optimal portfolio (GOP). For deterministic short rate the solution of the bond term structure...

This paper proposes a forecasting model that combines a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) methodology with the Nelson and Siegel (NS) parametrization of the yield curve to predict the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Importantly, we extract the principal components for the FAVAR from a...

The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed...

We study general equilibrium asset prices in a multi-period endowment economy when agents' risk aversion is allowed to depend on the maturity of the risk. We find horizon-dependent riskaversion preferences generate a decreasing term structure of risk premia if and only if volatility is...

The sensitivity of long-term rates to short-term rates represents a puzzle for standard macro-finance models. Post-FOMC announcement drift in Treasury markets after Federal Funds target changes contributes to the excess sensitivity of long rates. A model in which some investors slowly adjust...