The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of foresight methods and techniques, with the aim of updating the debate and highlighting the more recent approaches in the field. In revisiting these methods and techniques, we observed the need for a brief incursion in an epistemological...

The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of foresight methods and techniques, with the aim of updating the debate and highlighting the more recent approaches in the field. In revisiting these methods and techniques, we observed the need for a brief incursion in an epistemological...

The international financial crises of the 1990s rose doubts on the usefulness of sovereign ratings. The present paper has two aims: identify whether sovereign ratings can be predicted using a small set of macroeconomic fundamentals; and test whether sovereign spreads can be predicted by...

This paper analyzes the personnel expenditures in the Brazilian federal civil public service using administrative records from the Executive Branch. There are two contributions which are noteworthy because they may improve the understanding of policy makers regarding the evolution of those...

This paper analyzes the personnel expenditures in the Brazilian federal civil public service using administrative records from the Executive Branch. There are two contributions which are noteworthy because they may improve the understanding of policy makers regarding the evolution of those...

Spanish Abstract: Indonesia ha sido tradicionalmente uno de los centros globales de abastecimiento de commodities, al punto que la búsqueda de una ruta alternativa a ella desencadena el descubrimiento de América. A pesar de su tradicional importancia, esta y muchas otras facetas suyas se...

O crescimento econômico tem sido uma das grandes questões da sociedade atual. Desde 2008 as grandes potências vêm enfrentando dificuldades para retornar ao ciclo de desenvolvimento pelo qual passavam antes da crise mundial afetando os países emergentes que, por sua vez, devem buscar uma...

This paper analyzes the dynamic properties of a DSGE model for Brazil, under alternative model parameterizations. First, we carefully review the literature in order to identify admissible ranges for the model's parameters. We then calculate selected impulse response functions (IRF) under various...

This paper presents the first results of an ongoing project aimed at building and putting into operation a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Brazil. The model is based on Smets and Wouters (2003) and Christiano ET AL.(2005), to which we add features that are typical of...

The fit of empirical Taylor Rules to Brazilian data improves if we consider the hypothesis of interest rate inertia. Inertia seems to be part of monetary policy of several countries and reflects the action of Central Banks of not adjusting once-for-all to changing conditions. This article...