This paper provides Russia's financial system forecast to the year 2015. The analysis covers the banking sector, financial markets, public finance, financial system regulation (monetary, budget, investment policy). Among the key factors that influence Russian financial system development, are...

Covid-19 caused an abrupt disruption in the world economy and posed big challenges to macroeconomic and time-series analysis. The deep trough in the business cycle was unprecedented in momentum and magnitude, was not approached smoothly, and the pandemic shock was not heralded by any warning...

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...

A good prediction is very important for scientific, economic, and administrative purposes. It is therefore necessary to know whether a predictor is skillful enough to predict the future. Given the increased reliance on predictions in various disciplines, a prediction skill index (PSI) is...

The German economy will likely contract in the first quarter of 2024 due to still heightened inflation and weak demand, which was already weighing on German economic output in 2023. Inflation, which is falling in both Germany and the euro area overall, is expected to return close to the European...

We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a realtime subjective measure of uncertainty...