Abstract in Russian:В настоящем исследовании для определения ненаблюдаемых переменных разработаны полуструктурные макроэкономические модели для каждой страны региона...

The implementation of any State’s economic policy involves first developing short-term, mid-term and long-term forecasts, as well as socio-economic development programs. Their quality is largely dependent on credible assessments of the current economic setting, whose findings will then inform...

In this study, we construct an index using high-frequency data related to financial markets and intermediation services in Turkey, called the High-Frequency Financial Conditions Index, employing alternative statistical techniques for the period from 2006 to 2020. We also analyze the informative...

Financial Conditions Indexes (FCIs) are analytical tools devised to synthesize the information contained in a set of financial variables in order to identify how financial conditions affect economic activity. In this paper, for each of the three main Central and Eastern EU member states outside...

Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy's likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast...

This paper studies the nature of spillover effects in bank lending flows from advanced to the emerging market economies and identifies specific channels through which such effects occur. Based on a gravity model we examine a panel data set on cross-border bank flows from 17 advanced to 28...

Partisan conflict and policy uncertainty are frequently invoked as factors contributing to slow post-crisis recoveries. Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. In this paper we study the political fall-out from systemic...

We analyze the impact of financial crises and monetary policy on the supply of wholesale funding liquidity, and also on the compositional supply effects through cross-border and relationship lending. For empirical identification, we draw on the proprietary bank-to-bank European interbank dataset...

In this study, we investigate the existence of long-term co-movements among the prices of commodity futures contracts. We use a cointegration test, which accounts for the presence of a structural break. We show that while there is a long-term relationship among agricultural and among...