We compare Bayesian and sample theory model specification criteria. For the Bayesian criteria we use the deviance information criterion and the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast. For the sample theory criterion we use the conditional Kolmogorov test. We use Markov chain...

Investors recently are really concerned about the risk aspects associated with the investment in securities. Volatility calculation, therefore, has become an important aspect in the financial markets. For these reasons time series models are greatly used to forecast volatility. One such model is...

A common problem with differences-in-differences (DD) estimates is the failure of the parallel-trend assumption. To cope with this, most authors include polynomial (linear, quadratic…) trends among the regressors, and estimate the treatment effect as a once-in-a-time trend shift. In practice...

In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to...

This working paper aims to stress the role of the institutional capital and its components, as primary factors, in economic results at the national level, using adequate measurement indicators and econometric models. For this purpose, we analysed the following aspects: the definition of...

This paper develops a method to select the threshold in threshold-based jump detection methods. The method is motivated by an analysis of threshold-based jump detection methods in the context of jump-diffusion models. We show that over the range of sampling frequencies a researcher is most...

We propose a test for invertibility or fundamentalness of structural vector autoregressive moving average models generated by non-Gaussian independent and identically distributed structural shocks. We prove that in these models and un- der some regularity conditions the Wold innovations are a...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

A non-stationary regression model for financial returns is examined theoretically in this paper. Volatility dynamics are modelled both exogenously and deterministic, captured by a nonparametric curve estimation on equidistant centered returns. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of a...

In certain circumstances, both researchers and policy makers are faced with the challenge of determining individual efficiency scores for each decision making unit (DMU) under consideration. In this study, we use a Monte Carlo experimentation to analyze the optimal approach to determining...