Recent literature on the design of optimal monetary policy has shown that deviations fromprice stability are small whenever prices are sticky. This paper reconsiders this issue byintroducing capital accumulation in the model. Optimal monetary policy in this setupimplies small deviations from...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link - the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...

We model multiyear loss distributions based on credit scores and macroeconomic risk drivers. In a two-step approach, we first model future default probabilities as functions of these risk factors and, second, model processes for the risk factors themselves. As an essential extension to one-year...

Veränderungen in der Erwerbslandschaft, der demographische Wandel und die Globalisierunggelten neben anderen Einfl ussfaktoren wie derErosion der Finanzierungsbasis der sozialen Sicherungssystemeund der Staatsverschuldung als wesentlicheGründe für eine Neuausrichtung desSozialstaats. Diese...

In practice, central banks have been confronted with a trade-off between stabilising inflation and output when dealing with rising oil prices. This contrasts with the result in the standard New Keynesian model that ensuring complete price stability is the optimal thing to do, even when an oil...

Many developing and emerging markets have high degrees of state bank ownership. In addition, therecent global financial crisis has led to significant state ownership of banking assets in developedcountries such as the United Kingdom. These observations beg the question of whether...

How do financial markets price new information? This paper analyzes price setting atthe intersection of private and public information, by testing whether and how thereaction of financial markets to public signals depends on the relative importance ofprivate information in agents’ information...

While consumption habits have been utilised as a means of generating a hump shapedoutput response to monetary policy shocks in sticky-price New Keynesian economies,there is relatively little analysis of the impact of habits (particularly, external habits) onoptimal policy. In this paper we...

We find evidence of a bank lending channel for the euro area operating via bank risk.Financial innovation and the new ways to transfer credit risk have tended to diminishthe informational content of standard bank balance-sheet indicators. We show thatbank risk conditions, as perceived by...