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of trade to estimate a panel cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a …-based real exchange rate and commodity terms of trade. The estimated impact of productivity growth differentials between traded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825636
This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825803
? Data from South Asia suggest that member states have minor trade linkages and face asymmetrical patterns of shocks. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825897
if China's relative presence continues to rise in the regional trade. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826046
Given recent developments in Iceland, this paper evaluates its real exchange rate disequilibrium. It discusses three approaches to estimating the equilibrium values and suggests that the adjustment needed to bring the real exchange rate in line with fundamentals is in the range of 15-25 percent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826225
The effect of exchange rate volatility on trade flows was examined by a 1984 IMF study on G-7 countries. Over the past … exchange hedging instruments, may have reduced the impact of volatility on trade flows. Using recent advances in the economic … theories on trade and in statistical methodologies, this paper revisits this important issue by taking into account these new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005767343
to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of … developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with countries exporting more advanced manufacturing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008561079
presents several conventional techniques for assessing competitiveness, namely the real exchange rate and recent trade … many post-conflict situations. The real exchange measure and trade measures suggest some mild erosion of competitiveness in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768991
This paper investigates empirically the relevance of external, domestic, and financial weaknesses as well as trade and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769104
This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two …-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs …, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769265