We find that from about 1965 to 1983 US employees’ compensation, EC, relative to corporate profit, CP, increases in the long run, and from 1984 to 2013 the compensation decreases relative to profit to about half its 1983 value. The first period includes “US peacetime inflation”,...

It is widely believed that, in the wake of the dot.com crash, the Fed kept the federal funds target rate too low for too long, inadvertently contributing to the subprime boom. We attribute this and other Fed departures from a “neutral” policy stance to the Fed's failure to respond...

Bubbles and crashes have long been an important area of research that has not yet led to a comprehensive theoretical or empirical understanding of how to define, measure, and compare such extreme market events. Highlights of the vast literature on bubbles, crashes, and volatility are surveyed...

This paper argues that counter-cyclical liquidity hoarding by financial intermediaries may strongly amplify business cycles. It develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which banks operate subject to agency problems and funding liquidity risk in their intermediation activity....

This paper investigates the changing nature of economic integration in China. Specifically, we consider business-cycle synchronization (correlation of demand and supply shocks) among Chinese provinces during the period 1955–2011. We find that the symmetry of supply shocks has declined after...

This paper investigates the development of skill shortages during the period 2007-2012. Using the German Establishment Panel of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), we find differences across the years before, during and after the Great Recession. Furthermore, we analyze the importance...

Time series filtering methods such as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, with a consensual choice of the smoothing parameter, eliminate the possibility of identifying long swing cycles (e.g., Kondratieff type) or, alternatively, may distort periodicities that are in fact present in the data,...

We study the effect of bank loan and bond announcements on borrower’s stock price. We apply an event study methodology on a sample of companies from 17 European countries. We find that debt announcement generates a positive stock market reaction. However our main conclusion is that the...

This article addresses the existence of a wide range of estimated government spending multipliers in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Our estimation results and counterfactual exercises provide evidence that omitting the interactions of key ingredients at the...

In this article, we studied the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the observed corporate births for the Romanian economy through the Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ADL). We performed a time series analysis that uses monthly data for the period January 2008 – December 2013...