Through explicitly incorporating analysts' forecasts as observable factors in a dynamic arbitrage- free model of the yield curve, this paper proposes a framework for studying the impact of shifts in market sentiment on interest rates of all maturities. An empirical examination reveals that...

This paper presents econometric analyses on the determination of bank deposit and lending rates using longitudinal Finnish data. Interest rate pass-through is very strong, possibly complete, in the case of lending rates; in the case of deposit rates the pass-through is far from complete, even in...

Riding the yield curve, the fixed-income strategy of purchasing a longer-dated security and selling before maturity, has long been a popular means to achieve excess returns compared to buying-and-holding, despite its implicit violations of market efficiency and the pure expectations hypothesis...

Dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) price interest rate derivatives based on the model­ implied fair values of the yield curve, ignoring any pricing residuals on the yield curve that are either from model approximations or market imperfections. In contrast, option pricing in practice often...

This paper investigates the performance of international affine term structure models (ATSMs) that are driven by a mutual set of global state variables. We discuss which mixture of Gaussian and square root processes is best suited for modelling international bond markets. We derive necessary...

We identify and characterize a class of term structure models where bond yields are quadratic functions of the state vector. We label this class the quadratic class and aim to lay a solid theoretical foundation for its future empirical application. We consider asset pricing in general and...

We derive discrete markov chain approximations for continuous state equilibrium term structure models. The states and transition probabilities of the markov chain are chosen effciently according to a quadrature rule as in Tauchen and Hussey (1991). Quadrature provides a simple yet method which...

We investigate whether the same finite dimensional dynamic system spans both interest rates (the yield curve) and interest rate options (the implied volatility surface). We find that the options market exhibits factors independent of the underlying yield curve. While three common factors are...

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium model for the term structures of nominal and real interest rates that incorporates regime-switching into the dynamics ofthe state variables. The model generates time-varying risk premia via changes in the covariance structure of the state...

We present a dynamic term structure model in which interest rates of all maturities are bounded from below at zero. Positivity and continuity, combined with no arbitrage, result in only one functional form for the term structure with three sources of risk. One dynamic factor controls the level...