We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowthdifferential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negativematters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but...

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...

This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third,...

We evaluate the short- and long-term effects of different growth-enhancing policy measures implemented in the euro area by simulating a calibrated New Keynesian model featuring endogenous growth via the private sector's R&D accumulation. We find that higher public investment in infrastructures,...

The growing asymmetry in the size of fiscal imbalances poses a serious challenge to the macroeconomic stability of the Euro Area (EA). We show that following a contractionary shock, the current monetary and fiscal framework weakens economic growth even in lowdebt countries because of the zero...

The Euro Area is characterized by little variation in unemployment and strongly procyclical labor productivity. We capture both characteristics in a New Keynesian business cycle model with labor search frictions, where labor can vary along three margins: employment, hours, and effort. We...

This paper provides a detailed description of an extended version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area (cf. Christoffel, Coenen, and Warne 2008). The extended model—called NAWM II—incorporates a rich financial sector with the threefold aim of (i) accounting for a...

Using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) identified with a mix of sign and zero restrictions, we show that a restrictive bank loan supply shock has a strong and persistent negative impact on real GDP and the GDP deflator. This result comes about even though flows of other sources of...

This study investigates the pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area on the basis of surveys conducted by nine Eurosystem national central banks, covering more than 11,000 firms. The results, robust across countries, show that firms operate in monopolistically competitive markets, where...

There are striking similarities between the 'Krach' of 1929 and the current euro area debt crisis concerning the adjustment mechanisms involved overcoming international trade imbalances caused then by the German Transfer Problem and war reparations in general and now by intra-euro-area trade...