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Firm leverage, household leverage and the business cycle
Solomon, Bernard Daniel - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
This paper develops a macroeconomic model of the interaction between consumer debt and firm debt over the business cycle. I incorporate interest rate spreads generated by firm and household loan default risk into a real business cycle model. I estimate the model on US aggregate data. This allows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008693563
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The United States: An Economic Balance Sheet Analysis
De Koning, Kees - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012
occupied housing stock in 37 years. Much faster than desirable. Mortgage interest rates also went up in same month. In 2006 … mortgage lending went on unabated, but housing values did not keep pace. Securitisation led to the well known liquidity crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110907
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Long-Run Risk and Hidden Growth Persistence
Pakos, Michal - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013
An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111345
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Pension savings and economic growth
De Koning, Kees - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012
Savers, including pension savers, convert savings into assets: homes,government bonds and shares.The conversion of savings is for the very long term. Once monies are turned into assets, the reverse process of turning assets into cash cannot be achieved by all savers together. Unavoidably some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111570
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Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647230
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Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399
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Understanding the Backus-Smith Puzzle: It’s the (Nominal) Exchange Rate, Stupid
Hess, Gregory; Shin, Kwanho - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2006
Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (BKK 1992) showed that if international capital markets are complete, consumption growth correlations across countries should be higher than their corresponding output growth correlations. In stark contrast to the theory, however, in actual data the consumption growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005622064
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Book Review – Rethinking Housing Bubbles
Bell, Peter Newton - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
Review of the book titled 'Rethinking Housing Bubbles The Role of Household and Bank Balance Sheets in Modeling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108471
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Technology Shocks and Asset Price Dynamics: The Role of Housing in General Equilibrium
Yoshida, Jiro - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007
A general equilibrium model, that incorporates endogenous production and local housing markets, is developed in order … to explain the price relationship among human capital, housing, and stocks, and to uncover the role of housing in asset … pricing. Housing serves as an asset as well as a durable consumption good. It is shown that housing market conditions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005619522
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The world's dream: economic growth : the balance sheet approach
De Koning, Kees - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012
Economists may need to change their tools of analysis from analysing income and expenditure contributors (GDP) to asset value contributors -the net worth levels of individual households-. Assessment of the latter requires a balance sheet analysis. Why; because the level of individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257702