Deficit/ Surplus, Unemployment Rate, Inflation and others. We forecast the macroeconomic variables post 2012 using ARIMA … deficit. ARIMA models indicate that with the continuance of present government’s policies, budgetary deficit is estimated to …

and our analysis is based on linear models, ARIMA and bivariate transfer functions and restricted VAR. Forecasting … find that the bivariate models improve upon the forecasts of the ARIMA model while for models based on monthly data the … ARIMA model has almost always better performance. In choosing between the two bivariate models on the basis of RMSEs, our …