This paper provides survey evidence on firms’ subjective uncertainty about future sales growth from a new representative panel data set of the German manufacturing sector. The main finding is that uncertainty reflects change: firms report more subjective uncertainty after either high or low...

This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if...

Existing empirical evidence suggests that entrepreneurs are optimists, a finding researchers often interpret as evidence of a behavioral bias in entrepreneurial decision-making. We revisit this claim by analyzing an unusually large survey dataset (180,814 responses) that allows us to create a...

Household-level data on consumer expenditures underpins a wide range of empirical research in modern economics, spanning micro- and macroeconomics. This research includes work on consumption and saving, on poverty and inequality, and on risk sharing and insurance. We review different ways in...