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Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic variables, evaluating innovations state space approaches

Silva, Ashton J de - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

Innovations state space time series models that encapsulate the exponential smoothing methodology have been shown to be an accurate forecasting tool. These models for the first time are applied to Australian macroeconomic data. In addition new multivariate specifications are outlined and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765099

Hyper-spherical and Elliptical Stochastic Cycles

Luati, Alessandra; Proietti, Tommaso - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

A univariate first order stochastic cycle can be represented as an element of a bivariate first order vector autoregressive process, or VAR(1), where the transition matrix is associated with a Givens rotation. From the geometrical viewpoint, the kernel of the cyclical dynamics is described by a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005052169

Extracting the Cyclical Component in Hours Worked: a Bayesian Approach

Bernardi, Mauro; Della Corte, Giuseppe; Proietti, Tommaso - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

The series on average hours worked in the manufacturing sector is a key leading indicator of the U.S. business cycle. The paper deals with robust estimation of the cyclical component for the seasonally adjusted time series. This is achieved by an unobserved components model featuring an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005621547

Is the NAIRU More Useful in Forecasting Inflation than the Natural Rate of Unemployment?

Claar, Victor V - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2002

Recent studies have indicated that the terms 'NAIRU' (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and 'natural … rate of unemployment' are not interchangeable. While NAIRU is an empirical macroeconomic relationship estimated via a … natural rate of unemployment relative to the NAIRU. The natural rate of unemployment in the USA since the Second World War is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835658

Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models

Meyler, Aidan; Kenny, Geoff; Quinn, Terry - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 1998

This paper outlines the practical steps which need to be undertaken to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models for forecasting Irish inflation. A framework for ARIMA forecasting is drawn up. It considers two alternative approaches to the issue of identifying ARIMA...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005837105

Disinflation and the NAIRU in a New-Keynesian New-Growth Model (Extended Version)

Ansgar, Rannenberg - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

of the 1980s caused a subsequent increase in the NAIRU, and that there is a relationship between the increase in the … NAIRU and the size of the disinflation during that period across advanced OECD economies. There is also mounting evidence …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005837186

New Keynesian macroeconomics : Empirically tested in the case of Republic of Macedonia

Josheski, Dushko; Lazarov, Darko - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

effect in the equation at three quarters lag is positive. The NAIRU rate in the unemployment inflation trade off model is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257970

Análisis del impacto social de las inversiones públicas en infraestructuras. La huella social

Pegnalver, Domingo - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013

The welfare and social peace are the most important concepts when making policy decisions and investment spending of public resources. Currently both welfare and social peace are compromised by the lack of productive capital and excess of speculative capital, the imbalance between suffering...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260387

Der Beitrag alternativer NAIRU-Kurven zur Erklärung der Inflation

Quaas, Georg; Klein, Mathias - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is a major concept in (monetary) economics in predicting … variable, several questions arise about its adequate estimation. The following study determines four different possible NAIRU … trimmed to satisfactorily explain inflation changes. It turns out that besides the NAIRU, several other variables like the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008685371

Background Paper on Full Employment

Grady, Patrick - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 1986

Unemployment (NAIRU), which is derived from the extended Phillips curve model of wage determination is also examined in the second … proposed in 1964 to theMacdonald Commission's 6 1/2 to 8 per cent range for the NAIRU is chronicled. Estimates of the NAIRU … the meaning of full employment in the current context. The methodologies used to calculate the estimates of NAIRU are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008694141