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Did the Crisis Affect Potential Output?
El-Shagi, Makram - 2010
Conventional Phillips-curve models that are used to estimate the output gap detect a substantial decline in potential output due to the present crisis. Using a multivariate state space model, we show that this result does not hold if the long run role of excess liquidity (that we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271405
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Time-varying Nairu and real interest rates in the Euro Area
Logeay, Camille; Tober, Silke - 2003
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the … Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique … explain a quarter of the increase in the Nairu between 1980 and 1995. This indicates the possibility of a long-run non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011438545
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Hysteresis and NAIRU in the Euro area
Logeay, Camille; Tober, Silke - 2005 - This version: July 2005
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the … Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique … is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003744523
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The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment
Llaudes, Ricardo - 2005
propose a new specification of the Phillips Curve that contains different unemployment lengths in a time-varying NAIRU setting … maker: It produces more accurate forecasts of inflation and more precise estimates of the NAIRU. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604487
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Time-varying Nairu and real interest rates in the Euro Area
Logeay, Camille; Tober, Silke - 2003
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the … Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique … explain a quarter of the increase in the Nairu between 1980 and 1995. This indicates the possibility of a long-run non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260669
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Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU
Pollan, Wolfgang - 2008
interpreted as the result of a distributional struggle between business and labour unions. Recent writings on the NAIRU, however … standard tools of NAIRU analysis to the Austrian economy, an economy that has been subject to a variety of policy measures. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011435237
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The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany
Fitzenberger, Bernd; Franz, Wolfgang; Bode, Oliver - 2007
This paper provides new estimates of a time?varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by … inflation rates is employed. Therefore, either the NAIRU concept is not applicable to Germany or, as it is our suggestion, one … inflation target put forward by the European Central Bank. The estimates presented in this paper suggest that the NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297970
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U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered
Bårdsen, Gunnar; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2006
Several features of the U.S. natural rate of unemployment are reconsidered through specification and testing of econometric models. Traditionally, the choice has been between a wage Phillips curve model, PCM, or an equilibrium correction wage curve model, WECM. The models proposed in this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284368
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The NAIRU-concept: A few remarks
Pichelmann, Karl; Schuh, Ulrich - 1996
This note gives a brief survey of main theoretical and empirical issues with respect to the NAIRU concept. According to … modern labour market literature NAIRU is defined as the rate of unemployment at which inflation stabilizes in the absence of … any wage-price surprises. Conventional thinking about the equilibrium unemployment rate assumes that in the long run NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291066
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Inflation-unemployment tradeoff and regional labor market data
Hassler, Uwe; Neugart, Michael - 2002
We estimate a linear and a piecewise linear Phillips curve model with regional labor market data for West German and Neue Länder. Employing regional observations allows us to country difference the data. This eliminates, under the assumption of homogeneous Länder, supply shocks and changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010323716