Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about … measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People with higher levels of imprecision update their beliefs more in …

exposure to risk. In this paper, we test whether overconfident people underestimate the probability of incurring an avalanche … under different levels of avalanche risk, we measured individual cognitive traits and then used a random effect logit model … overestimate their knowledge are also more likely to take the risk associated with a ski trip exposed to avalanche danger. This …

study, we focus on the reliability of students’ earnings expectations. To what extent is observed log earnings expectations … affected by random measurement error (noise)? A test-retest method is applied and reliability is found to be fairly low; about … analysis show how these measures of reliability can be adjusted to become more suitable to other studies, where different …

transmitter incentive schemes, information about the reliability of a forecast is lost in transmission more than twice as much as …

measurement error. This paper presents the first attempt at measuring both revealed and self-reported reliability of individuals … cross-sectional data. We demonstrate that it predicts revealed individual reliability over and above all measured … characterises, survey conditions, and experimental treatments. We show how our simple self-reported reliability measure can be used …