We show that technical indicators deliver stable economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium over the out-of-sample period from 1966 to 2014. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over a large continuum of sub-periods. By contrast, economic indicators work well...

Bond excess returns can be predicted by macro factors, however, large parts remain still unexplained. We apply a novel term structure model to decompose bond excess returns into expected excess returns (risk premia) and the unexpected part. In order to explore these risk premia and innovations,...

This research uses macro factors to explain four standard U.S. stock market risk premia, i.e. the market excess return (RM-RF), size (SMB), value (HML), and momentum (WML). We find in-sample predictive power of macro factors, in particular at a one-year horizon. Differentiating between bull and...

We show that technical indicators deliver economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium. A crucial element of this value stems from the stability of return predictability over the full sample period from 1950 to 2013. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over...

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of foreign exchange endusers. The results suggest that order flows...

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of foreign exchange end-users. The results suggest that order flows...

We show that technical indicators deliver stable economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium over the out-of-sample period from 1966 to 2014. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over a large continuum of sub-periods. By contrast, economic indicators work well...

Using data for the trades of 19 central banks intervening in currency markets, we show that stabilization policies by individual central banks lead to "systematic intervention" patterns. This systematic intervention is driven by and impacts on the same factors that drive currency excess returns:...