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to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270748
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for output growth, inflation and the interest rate. The model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305958
and forecasting as well as for "what-if" inferring suitable for entities of all sizes. In particular, it allows for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288753
model used for the measurement of current and forecasting of the future customer profitability. Modern customer … research model uses RFM model to define forecasting variables and neural network, multivariate regression analysis and binary … logistic regression as forecasting methods. This paper shows the ways how proposed methods can be used in process of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011920317
The paper presents an analysis of real income convergence between the 11 countries of Central Eastern Europe which have joined the European Union (EU11) and 15 countries of Western Europe (EU15) in the period 1993-2015. The evolution of the income gap between the two groups of countries in terms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011546733
The paper evaluates the impact of the EU Eastern enlargement 2004 on the economic performance of border regions located at the frontier to the new member states in the East. These regions were assumed to be particularly affected by the enlargement because of their geographic proximity to the new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400528
forecasting exports, which is based on survey data that captures foreign economic performance. We construct an indicator by … weighting foreign PMIs of Switzerland's main trading partners with their export shares and compare its forecasting performance … used indicators for forecasting exports and an univariate benchmark. As manufacturing is an important pillar of the Swiss …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301426
In light of the recent large swings in stock and housing prices accompanied by ample global liquidity, the role of monetary policy in the build-up of asset price bubbles has been questioned. This paper will contribute to the debate whether central banks can and should stronger "lean against the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301448
We analyze the relationship between unemployment rate changes and government bond yields during and after the most recent financial crisis across nine industrialized countries. The study is conducted on a weekly basis and we therefore nowcast unemployment data, which are only available once a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301517
In past years, the most common approaches for deriving early-warning models belong to the family of binary-choice methods, which have been coupled with a separate loss function to optimize model signals based on policymakers preferences. The evidence in this paper shows that early-warning models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301560