Showing 1 - 10 of 21
This paper examines disclosures by sell-side analysts when their institution has a lending relationship with the firms being covered. Lending-affiliated analysts’ earnings forecasts are found to be more accurate relative to forecasts by other analysts but this differential accuracy manifests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009221524
This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West’s (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of West’s writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321127
subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out … comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting U.S. real GDP growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321128
and forecasting, we specify a range of models of inflation, including: AR with constant trend; AR with trend equal to last …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009416058
This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy … setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009358592
discussed why and how the Bank develops its economic forecasts and why the role of judgment becomes paramount for forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010725725
An examination of whether one should seasonally adjust data before developing multivariate time series models to provide forecasts.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526635
An argument that variations of extant general-equilibrium monetary models can generate real-time economic forecasts comparable in accuracy to those contained in the Federal Reserve Board's "Greenbook" briefing documents.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526647
This paper explores the hypothesis that the sources of economic and financial crises differ from noncrisis business cycle fluctuations. We employ Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) to gather evidence about the hypothesis on a long annual U.S. sample running from 1890 to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010592569
In this paper we examine how the forecasting performance of Bayesian VARs is affected by a number of specification … length and of both; compare alternative approaches to multi-step forecasting (direct, iterated, and pseudo-iterated); discuss …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024092