Similar Search Results

Core import price inflation in the United States

Koech, Janet; Wynne, Mark A. - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2012

The cross-section distribution of U.S. import prices exhibits some of the fat-tailed characteristics that are well documented for the cross-section distribution of U.S. consumer prices. This suggests that limited-influence estimators of core import price inflation might outperform headline or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010599256

A real-time historical database for the OECD

Fernandez, Adriana Z.; Koenig, Evan F.; … - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2011

Ongoing economic globalization makes real-time international data increasingly relevant, though little work has been done on collecting and analyzing real-time data for economies other than the U.S. In this paper, we introduce and examine a new international real-time dataset assembled from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009366928

Indeterminacy and forecastability

Fujiwara, Ippei; Hirose, Yasuo - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2011

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation. This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321088

Introductory remarks to the Price Measurement for Monetary Policy Conference

Fisher, Richard W. - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2007

Remarks given to a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Cleveland, Dallas, Texas, May 24, 2007 ; "One of our main criticisms here at the Dallas Fed of much of the core inflation literature is that it lacks theoretical coherence. It reminds me of the time-honored saying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010726020

Confessions of a data dependent

Fisher, Richard W. - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2006

Remarks before the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, November 2, 2006 ; "Globalization brings new influences into the Fed's navigation calculations to determine the best flight path for the U.S. economy. To determine that course...we must develop a better understanding of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010726054

Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting

Koo, Boonsoo; Seo, Myung Hwan - Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, … - 2013

continuously or with some jumps. This view is widely held in the forecasting literature and under this view, the time series … contemporary forecasting methods is compared to ours using a number of macroeconomic data. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860411

Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting

Koo, Boonsoo; Seo, Myung Hwan - Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, … - 2013

distribution theory involves cube-root asymptotics and it is used to shed light on forecasting practice. We show that the … conventional forecasting methods do not necessarily produce the best forecasts in our setting. We also propose a new forecasting … strategy, which incorporates our new distribution theory, and apply our forecasting method to numerous macroeconomic data. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860415

Tractable latent state filtering for non-linear DSGE models using a second-order approximation

Kollmann, Robert - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2013

This paper develops a novel approach for estimating latent state variables of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that are solved using a second-order accurate approximation. I apply the Kalman filter to a state-space representation of the second-order solution based on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010665224

The GVAR approach and the dominance of the U.S. economy

Chudik, Alexander; Smith, Vanessa - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2013

This paper extends the recent literature about global macroeconomic modelling by allowing the presence of a globally dominant economy. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. From a theoretical standpoint, we follow Chudik and Pesaran (2011 and 2012) to derive the GVAR approach as an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010628446

PCE inflation and core inflation

Smith, Julie K. - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - 2012

This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of the trimmed mean inflation rate of the Personal Consumption … Expenditure (PCE) deflator. Earlier works have examined the forecasting ability of limited-influence estimators (trimmed means and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010554999