Similar Search Results

Participation Rates in Government Transfer Programs: Application to Housing Allowances

Rydell, C. Peter; Mulford, John E.; Kozimor, Lawrence W. - In: Management Science 25 (1979) 5, pp. 444-453

A general model of participation in a transfer program is developed and applied to data obtained from housing allowance programs in Brown County, Wisconsin and St. Joseph County, Indiana. Estimates of the parameters of the model are obtained from pooled data for the two sites, and the fitted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203821

A Bayesian Technique for Selecting a Linear Forecasting Model

Trader, Ramona L. - In: Management Science 29 (1983) 5, pp. 622-632

The specification of a forecasting model is considered in the context of linear multiple regression. Several potential … forecasting problem. The approach taken here utilizes both data and expert judgment by incorporating them into a Bayesian … predictive distribution. Precise forecasting models are constructed by selecting the set of predictors which minimizes a measure …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203933

Hindsight Bias, Risk Perception, and Investment Performance

Biais, Bruno; Weber, Martin - In: Management Science 55 (2009) 6, pp. 1018-1029

Once they have observed information, hindsight-biased agents fail to remember how ignorant they were initially; "they knew it all along." We formulate a theoretical model of this bias, providing a foundation for empirical measures and implying that hindsight-biased agents learning about...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203958

Technological Forecasting---An Overview

Martino, Joseph P. - In: Management Science 26 (1980) 1, pp. 28-33

Within the past decade, the set of techniques used by technological forecasters has expanded considerably. While the old standbys such as trend extrapolation are still in wide use, some new techniques are also beginning to see wide use. In addition, there are some new techniques which have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204092

Evaluation of Aggregate and Individual Forecast Method Selection Rules

Fildes, Robert - In: Management Science 35 (1989) 9, pp. 1056-1065

A major use of univariate forecasting methods lies in production control where there is a large number of series to be … forecast. The appropriate choice of forecasting method has the potential for major cost savings through improved accuracy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204113

A Bayesian Model for Prelaunch Sales Forecasting of Recorded Music

Lee, Jonathan; Boatwright, Peter; Kamakura, Wagner A. - In: Management Science 49 (2003) 2, pp. 179-196

-of-sample predictions. In the context of new product forecasting before introduction, the information we have is limited to the relevant …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204127

Aggregation and Proration in Forecasting

Shlifer, E.; Wolff, R. W. - In: Management Science 25 (1979) 6, pp. 594-603

proration of a forecast of the whole market. The comparisons in (a) and (b) are also applied to the problem of forecasting for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204228

Predicting Future Random Events Based on Past Performance

Morrison, Donald G.; Schmittlein, David C. - In: Management Science 27 (1981) 9, pp. 1006-1023

There are many situations where one is interested in predicting the expected number of events in period 2 given that x events occurred in period 1. For example, insurance companies must decide whether or not to cancel the insurance of drivers who had 3 or more accidents during the previous year....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204283

Note on Adjustments to Analysts' Earnings Forecasts Based Upon Systematic Cross-Sectional Components of Prior-Period Errors

Elgers, Pieter T.; Lo, May H.; Murray, Dennis - In: Management Science 41 (1995) 8, pp. 1392-1396

This study assesses the effectiveness of using systematic components of cross-sectional forecast errors from prior years in order to adjust current analysts' earnings forecasts. The empirical results document that a significant component of the cross-sectional MSE in analysts' forecasts is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204293

Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables

Heeler, Roger M.; Hustad, Thomas P. - In: Management Science 26 (1980) 10, pp. 1007-1020

A popular model of new product diffusion is applied in an international setting. Several limitations on its use are noted: instability with limited data, environmental differences, and systematic under reporting of estimated time to attain peak level of first purchase sales.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009204575

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Next
Last