We study how the labour market and industry uncertainty affect the investment decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs). In an uncertain business climate, MNEs must take account of the future in deciding where to locate a branch plant. When wages are endogenously determined, both the...

We model a firm's choice between exporting and investing in a foreign country in the presence of possibly persistent demand uncertainty. We allow for demand shocks that, while increasing expected profit, impede learning. The firm learns gradually, in a Bayesian fashion, by observing past demand...

In an uncertain business climate, multinational enterprises must take account of future exit costs in deciding where to locate a branch plant. We study how differences in national labour-market conditions between countries influence this decision. Other things equal, the most attractive location...

This Paper investigates the empirical relationship between uncertainty and investment dynamics. This is motivated by the real options literature, which suggests a weaker response of investment to demand shocks at higher levels of uncertainty, as firms place a greater value on the option to wait....

We review recent advances in the field of decision making under uncertainty or ambiguity.

We investigate the empirical relation between ambiguity aversion, risk aversion and portfolio choices. We match administrative panel data on portfolio choices with survey data on preferences over ambiguity and risk. We report three main findings. First, conditional on participation, ambiguity...

We provide possibility results on the aggregation of beliefs and tastes for Monotone, Bernoullian and Archimedian preferences of Cerreia-Vioglio, Ghirardato, Maccheroni, Marinacci and Siniscalchi (2011). We propose a new axiom, Unambiguous Pareto Dominance, which requires that if the unambiguous...

When choosing a contraception method, women base their decisions on their subjective expectations about the realizations of method-related outcomes. Examples of such outcomes include getting pregnant, contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD) or experiencing side effects. By conducting a...

In this paper, we show how an investor can incorporate uncertainty about expected returns when choosing a mean-variance optimal portfolio. In contrast to the Bayesian approach to estimation error, where there is only a single prior and the investor is neutral to uncertainty, we consider the case...

In this paper, we show how an investor can incorporate uncertainty about expected returns when choosing a mean-variance optimal portfolio. In contrast to the Bayesian approach to estimation error, where there is only a single prior and the investor is neutral to uncertainty, we consider the case...