Spreads of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) vary significantly in the cross section and over time, but the sources of this variation are not well understood. We document that, in the cross section, MBS spreads adjusted for the prepayment option show a pronounced smile with respect to the...

Term premiums, defined as the excess return of long-dated contracts over short-dated contracts, in commodity futures are strongly predictable, both in the time series and in the cross section, by roll yield spreads. Strategies that exploit this predictability show sizable Sharpe ratios and are...

We derive expected bond return equations for various structural credit valuation models with alternative stochastic processes and boundary conditions for default given in Merton [1974], Merton [1976], Black and Cox [1976], Heston [1993], Longstaff and Schwartz [1995], and Collin-Dufresne and...

Can consumption-based mechanisms generate positive and time-varying real term premia as we see in the data? I show that only models with time-varying risk aversion or models with high consumption risk can independently produce these patterns. The latter explanation has not been analysed before...

HJM one-factor models (including Hull White) have many applications within finance. The risk neutral measure is one of the most common measures to use with HJM models. Since the risk neutral numeraire (money market account) and bond are driven by the same Brownian motion it is frequently assumed...

The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...

In this article we define a multi-factor equity-interest rate hybrid model with non-zero correlation between the stock and interest rate. The equity part is modeled by the Heston model [Heston-1993] and we use a Gaussian multi-factor short rate process [Brigo,Mercurio-2007; Hull-2006]. By...

Equilibrium asset-pricing models with time-varying expected economic growth have been criticized for their apparent inability to generate an upward-sloping yield curve and downward-sloping term structures of equity risk and risk premium. We theoretically investigate the model-implied equilibrium...