[...]This paper looks for evidence of both types of crediteffects—those that are endogenous to the monetarymechanism and those that are exogenous—using informationon banks’ commercial credit standards as a proxy for bankcredit availability. We compare results from an...

[...]This article investigates whether changes in the termpremium tend to distort the term spread’s recession signals.3We begin by decomposing the term spread into an expectationscomponent and a term premium component, based on the Kimand Wright (2005) term premium estimates. Next, we...

[...]This article analyzes empirical evidence on the limits ofarbitrage in the interest rate swap market as well as on howtrading risk can affect market liquidity and amplify shocks inasset prices. We study these issues in terms of the behavior ofthe interest rate swap spread—the spread...

[...]In this article, we assess the evidence in support of a bubblein U.S. home prices and discuss whether a severe decline inthese prices is likely. We also examine the effects of a steep dropin home prices on the broader national economy. Examining the possible effects of a severe decline in...