This paper investigates whether measuring consumption risk over long horizons can improve the empirical performance of the Consumption CAPM for size and value premia in international stock markets (US, UK, and Germany). In order to account for commonalities in size and book-tomarket sorted...

Since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began announcing its policy decisions in 1994, U.S. stock returns have on average been more than thirty times larger on announcement days than on other days. Surprisingly, these abnormal returns are accrued before the policy announcement. The excess...

A convenience yield represents a difference between yield on a safe bond and yield on a synthetic safe bond, constructed by combining a risky bond with a CDS contract. We explain the shapes of eurozone sovereign convenience curves using a model in which arbitrageurs face higher funding costs on...

Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates u0097 that...

Following Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments before Congress that the FOMC may ‘take a step down in the pace of asset purchases if economic improvement appears to be sustained’, US 10-year interest rates picked up sharply and gross capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) reversed....

This paper explores time series momentum in fixed income securities. Almost all countries in our large sample of 28 advanced and emerging markets have statistically significant positive time series momentum strategy returns. Shorter maturity fixed income securities have greater momentum returns...

To measure the global spillovers of a Chinese slowdown on the long-term nominal interest rates in the US/Germany, I model the US/German nominal term structure jointly in the post financial crisis (FC) sample, including the Chinese leading indicator as a new factor. I use an affine term structure...

We use survey expectations about future monetary policy to decompose excess returns on fed funds futures and overnight index swaps into a term premium and an expectation error component. We find that excess returns are primarily driven by expectation errors, while term premia are economically...

This paper considers the ramifications of the landmark US Appeals Court decision in USA v Connolly & Black (decided January 27, 2022) to acquit on all charges, 2 former Deutsche Bank trader’s Matthew Connolly and Gavin Campbell Black, who had been accused of conspiracy to defraud and false and...

The main aim of this article is to present the correlations between different macroeconomic indicators such as inflation rate or interest rate and the dynamics of investment fund in U.S. and Romania. The direct relationship between inflation rate and net subscription of stock funds in the US...