GDP growth and inflation. As Stock and Watson (2003) find, some financial variables work well in some countries or over … financial variables for predicting real GDP growth and inflation. Their assumption is that financial asset prices will dominate …

nominal policy interest rate and the CPI inflation rate decline during housing booms and rise as house prices fall. These … demonstrate that stronger policy responses to inflation amplify housing-market boom-bust cycles. Also, higher loan-to-value ratios …

rule that stabilizes output and inflation in an environment where endogenous boom-bust cycles in house prices can occur … borrowers are occasionally over-optimistic, the central bank should be less responsive to inflation, more responsive to output …-bust cycles in house prices, but prolongs inflation target horizons due to weak policy reactions to inflation fluctuations after …

The authors investigate the implications of house-price bubbles for the optimal inflation-target horizon using a …, given the distribution of shocks and inflation persistence over the past 25 years, the optimal target horizon for Canada … inception of the inflation-targeting regime. The authors' results also suggest that it may be appropriate to take a longer view …