Showing 1 - 10 of 155
We develop a new simultaneous time series model for volatility and dependence with long memory (fractionally integrated) dynamics and heavy-tailed densities. Our new multivariate model accounts for typical empirical features in financial time series while being robust to outliers or jumps in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386532
We propose a new class of observation-driven time-varying parameter models for dynamic volatilities and correlations to handle time series from heavy-tailed distributions. The model adopts generalized autoregressive score dynamics to obtain a time-varying covariance matrix of the multivariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838568
We propose a new class of observation driven time series models referred to as Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) models. The driving mechanism of the GAS model is the scaled score of the likelihood function. This approach provides a unified and consistent framework for introducing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209514
It is standard to model the output-inflation trade-off as a linear relationship with a time-invariant slope. We assess … coincided with stable, albeit moderately negative, inflation. We document that this episode is most convincingly interpreted as … Phillips curve slope. Our results suggest that, in any economy where trend inflation is substantially lower (or substantially …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005395324
New Zealand and Australia have recently had large import price increases on the back of currency depreciations. Despite these large import price shocks, consumer prices have not risen as strongly as would be suggested by previously accepted relationships. The recent prolonged period of general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062000
I develop a new estimate of core inflation for New Zealand and Australia based on a dynamic factor model. By using an … innovation allows us to examine the relative contributions of tradable and nontradable prices towards core inflation. The results … show that core inflation in both countries is primarily driven by the nontradable factor. The nontradable factor also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008774021
Traditional ways of analyzing the effects of monetary policy shocks via structural vector autoregressions require the use of unrealistic identifying assumptions: they either do not allow for a response of output and prices on impact of the shock, or they exclude contemporaneous values of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838547
This paper uses wavelets to develop a core inflation measure for inflation targeting central banks. The analysis is … applied to the case of New Zealand – the country with the longest history of explicit inflation targeting. We compare the …-term trend in inflation. It also has comparable forecasting performance to standard benchmarks. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005007502
New Zealand data show that the inflation-output relationship is asymmetric. This asymmetry implies that positive demand … shocks tend to increase inflation by more than negative demand shocks of similar magnitudes reduce it. An important … implication of this asymmetry is that a monetary authority with the objective of maintaining the inflation rate within a narrow …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005546692
This paper introduces a new indicator of core inflation for New Zealand, estimated using a dynamic factor model and … with a wide range of other ‘core inflation’ measures estimated from disaggregate prices, such as the weighted median and … inflation outcomes. The 2 year centred moving average is used as an analytical approximation of the inflation target from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005395292