There is no consensus in the literature as to which model should be used to estimate the stock returns and the cost of capital in the emerging markets. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) that is most often used for this purpose in the developed markets has a poor empirical record and is...

Rietz (1988) and Barro (2006) subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth rate. We extend their framework and subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth persistence. Wemodel growth persistence by means of two hidden types of economic slowdowns:...

We examine a trivariate time series model that is subject to a regime switch, where the shifts are governed by an unobserved, two-state variable that follows a Markov process. The analysis is performed in a Bayesian framework developed by Albert and Chib (1993), where the unobserved states are...