Using a unique French firm-level dataset, we study how international trade affects the wage bargaining process at the firm level. Using instrumental variables techniques, we find that exports shocks have a positive effect on the probability that a firm-level wage agreement is signed, while...

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...