We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extendingit in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...

This paper discusses the paper "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions" by Neville Francis and Valerie A. Ramey. It argues that these authors have made great progress both in the precise measurement of labor input as well as determining the effect...

The current paper presents a short survey of stochastic models of risk control and dividend optimization techniques for a financial corporation. While being close to consumption/investment models of Mathematical Finance, dividend optimization models possess special features which do not allow...

The effect of model and parameter misspecification on the effectiveness of Gaussian hedging strategies for derivative financial instruments is analyzed, showing that Gaussian hedges in the `natural'' hedging instruments are particularly robust. This is true for all models that imply...

This paper examines the pricing of options by approximating extensions of the Black-Scholes setup in which volatility follows a separate diffusion process. It gereralizes the well-known binomial model, constructing a discrete two-dimensional lattice. We discuss convergence issues extensively and...

In this paper we consider the range of prices consistent with no arbitrage for European options in a general stochastic volatility model. We give conditions under which infimum respectively the supremum of the possible option prices are equal to the intrinsic value of the option or to the...

The lognormal distribution assumption for the term structure of interest is the most natural way to exclude negative spot and forward rates. However, imposing this assumption on the continuously compounded interest rate has a serious drawback: rates explode and expected rollover returns are...

The present paper analyses a broad range of one- and multifactor models of the term structure of interest rates. We assess the influence of the number of factors, mean reversion, and the factor probability distributions on the term structure shapes the models generate, and use spread options as...

We derive a unified model which gives closed form solutions for caps and floors written on interest rates as well as puts and calls written on zero-coupon bonds. The crucial assumption is that forward rates with a compounding period that matches the contract, which we want to price, is...

Suppose that (X(n)) is a finite adapted sequence of d-dimensional random variables defined on some filtered probability space ( Omega, F, ( Fn),P ) . We obtain conditions which are necessary and sufficient for the existence of a probability measure Q equivalent to P ( which we call an equivalent...