We show how to construct a composite Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to calculate real-time recession probability, using the jubilee and ldhmm packages in R. The input data is the unemployment rate (UNRATE) which is released monthly by the U.S. government. There are two sub-models: The one-year...

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the wage, price and unemployment dynamics that have taken place in Spain during the last two decades. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the impact of the European economic integration on Spanish labour market and the convergence to a...

Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex-ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much...

Although survey-based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex-ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much...

We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We...

In this paper we provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macro economic variables such as inflation and output growth. Some probabilistic forecasts of different scenarios associated to those variables are also calculated. The probability forecasts take different types of uncertainties...

Although survey‐based point predictions have been found to outperform successful forecasting models, corresponding variance forecasts are frequently diagnosed as heavily distorted. Professional forecasters who report inconspicuously low ex ante variances often produce squared forecast errors...

This paper examined a set of over two thousand crypto-coins observed between 2015 and 2020 to estimate their credit risk by computing their probability of death. We employed different definitions of dead coins, ranging from academic literature to professional practice, alternative forecasting...

We scrutinize the role of capital flows for competitiveness in seven euro-area countries in the context of real convergence and crisis with a specific focus on Greece. The paper extends the seminal Balassa-Samuelson model to include international capital markets. Capital flows are assumed to be...

We scrutinize the role of capital flows in competitiveness in a set of seven euroarea member countries (Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Slovenia, and the Slovak Republic) in the context of real convergence and crisis. A specific focus is on Greece. The paper extends the seminal...